To promote climate adaptation and mitigation, it is crucial to understand stakeholder perspectives and knowledge gaps on land use and climate changes. Stakeholders across 21 European islands were consulted on climate and land use change issues affecting ecosystem services. Climate change perceptions included temperature, precipitation, humidity, extremes, and wind. Land use change perceptions included deforestation, coastal degradation, habitat protection, renewable energy facilities, wetlands, and others. Additional concerns such as invasive species, water or energy scarcity, infrastructure problems, and austerity were also considered. Climate and land use change impact perceptions were analysed with machine learning to quantify their influence. The predominant climatic characteristic is temperature, and the predominant land use characteristic is deforestation. Water-related problems are top priorities for stakeholders. Energy-related problems, including energy deficiency and issues with wind and solar facilities, rank high as combined climate and land use risks. Stakeholders generally perceive climate change impacts on ecosystem services as negative, with natural habitat destruction and biodiversity loss identified as top issues. Land use change impacts are also negative but more complex, with more explanatory variables. Stakeholders share common perceptions on biodiversity impacts despite geographic disparity, but they differentiate between climate and land use impacts. Water, energy, and renewable energy issues pose serious concerns, requiring management measures.

Natural disasters such as hurricanes and wildfires increasingly introduce unusual disturbance on economic activities, which are especially likely to reshape commercial land use pattern given their sensitive to customer visitation. However, current modeling approaches are limited in capturing such complex interplay between human activities and commercial land use change under and following disturbances. Such interactions have been more effectively captured in current resilient urban planning theories. This study designs and calibrates a Urban Theory-Informed Spatio-Temporal Attention Model for Predicting Post-Disaster Commercial Land Use Change (Urban-STA4CLC) to predict both the yearly decline and expansion of commercial land use at census block level under cumulative impact of disasters on human activities over two years. Guided by urban theories, Urban-STA4CLC integrates both spatial and temporal attention mechanisms with three theory-informed modules. Resilience theory guides a disaster-aware temporal attention module that captures visitation dynamics. Spatial economic theory informs a multi-relational spatial attention module for inter-block representation. Diffusion theory contributes a regularization term that constrains land use transitions. The model performs significantly better than non-theoretical baselines in predicting commercial land use change under the scenario of recurrent hurricanes, with around 19% improvement in F1 score (0.8763). The effectiveness of the theory-guided modules was further validated through ablation studies. The research demonstrates that embedding urban theory into commercial land use modeling models may substantially enhance the capacity to capture its gains and losses. These advances in commercial land use modeling contribute to land use research that accounts for cumulative impacts of recurrent disasters and shifts in economic activity patterns.

Islands are diversity hotspots and vulnerable to environmental degradation, climate variations, land use changes and societal crises. These factors can exhibit interactive impacts on ecosystem services. The study reviewed a large number of papers on the climate change-islands-ecosystem services topic worldwide. Potential inclusion of land use changes and other drivers of impacts on ecosystem services were sequentially also recorded. The study sought to investigate the impacts of climate change, land use change, and other non-climatic driver changes on island ecosystem services. Explanatory variables examined were divided into two categories: environmental variables and methodological ones. Environmental variables include sea zone geographic location, ecosystem, ecosystem services, climate, land use, other driver variables, Methodological variables include consideration of policy interventions, uncertainty assessment, cumulative effects of climate change, synergistic effects of climate change with land use change and other anthropogenic and environmental drivers, and the diversity of variables used in the analysis. Machine learning and statistical methods were used to analyze their effects on island ecosystem services. Negative climate change impacts on ecosystem services are better quantified by land use change or other non-climatic driver variables than by climate variables. The synergy of land use together with climate changes is modulating the impact outcome and critical for a better impact assessment. Analyzed together, there is little evidence of more pronounced for a specific sea zone, ecosystem, or ecosystem service. Climate change impacts may be underestimated due to the use of a single climate variable deployed in most studies. Policy interventions exhibit low classification accuracy in quantifying impacts indicating insufficient efficacy or integration in the studies.